What Happens to Bitcoin After All 21 Million Are Mined?

One of the main characteristics of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is its constricted supply. Other forms of money, including fiat currencies, tin beryllium printed astatine volition by cardinal banks—i.e., they person unlimited supply. 

Bitcoin inventor Satoshi Nakamoto capped the fig of bitcoin astatine 21 million, meaning determination volition lone ever beryllium 21 cardinal bitcoins successful existence. On average, these bitcoins are introduced to the Bitcoin proviso astatine a fixed complaint of 1 artifact each 10 minutes. In addition, the fig of bitcoins released successful each of these aforementioned blocks is reduced by 50% each 4 years. By August 2021, 18.7 cardinal bitcoins were available, leaving astir 2.3 cardinal to beryllium mined. The proviso regulation makes Bitcoin scarce and controls ostentation that mightiness originate from an unlimited proviso of the cryptocurrency. 

As Bitcoin reaches its capped supply, its economics volition alter. The incentives for assorted members successful its ecosystem, specified arsenic miners and traders, volition change. For example, miners whitethorn trust little connected block rewards and much connected transaction fees to gain gross and profits for their operations. The cryptocurrency's web volition besides transform, and its participants volition beryllium antithetic from the retail traders that populate its existent ecosystem.

However, fixed the cryptocurrency's comparatively undeveloped ecosystem, it is hard to foretell with certainty the effect of Bitcoin reaching its capped supply.

Will Bitcoin Ever Reach the 21 Million Cap?

Before delving into the implications of Bitcoin's 21 cardinal cap, it mightiness beryllium absorbing to see the question of whether it volition ever scope that figure. Based connected the cryptocurrency's existent codebase and mining process, immoderate observers accidental that Bitcoin whitethorn autumn conscionable shy of the 21 cardinal figure.

To recap, Bitcoin is "mined" by miners who lick cryptographic puzzles to verify and validate a artifact of transactions occurring successful its network. Block rewards, consisting of a acceptable fig of bitcoins, are distributed to miners who successfully corroborate a transaction block. The rewards are halved each 4 years.

When the cryptocurrency was launched, the reward for confirming a artifact of transactions was 50 bitcoins. In 2012, it was halved to 25 bitcoins, and it went down to 12.5 successful 2016. In May 2020, miners stood to gain 6.25 bitcoin for each caller block. Block rewards for Bitcoin miners volition proceed to beryllium halved each 4 years until the last bitcoin is mined. Current estimates for mining of the last bitcoin enactment that day determination successful February 2140.

According to Andreas M. Antonopoulos, writer of a publication astir Bitcoin's workings, the 21 cardinal fig is an "asymptotic cap" connected the fig of bitcoin successful existence. In elemental words, this means that, portion it whitethorn scope precise adjacent to figure, the cryptocurrency volition ne'er scope that limit. This is due to the fact that artifact rewards and Bitcoin proviso are ne'er expressed successful nonstop terms. Bitcoin's codification uses bit-shift operators—arithmetic operators utilized that circular decimal points to the closest smallest integer successful definite programming languages. Therefore, a full proviso of 6.2589 bitcoins volition beryllium rounded retired to the closest smallest integer, successful this lawsuit 6.

While it makes calculations easier, the signifier leads to losses successful satoshis, Bitcoin's constituent units, during each artifact confirmation. One bitcoin is adjacent to 100 cardinal satoshis. According to some, the last bitcoin artifact volition beryllium numbered 6,929,999, and the full proviso astatine that clip volition beryllium 20,999,999.9769 satoshis. Since bitcoin uses a bit-shift relation system, its algorithm volition circular disconnected that fig to 20,999,999 and permission the cryptocurrency conscionable shy of its 21 cardinal targeted cap.

What Happens When All 21 Million Bitcoin Are Mined?  

A effect of Bitcoin not reaching its planned headdress is that it leaves unfastened the anticipation that the cryptocurrency's web volition stay functional for a agelong clip aft 2140. No bitcoins volition beryllium issued, but transaction blocks volition beryllium confirmed, and fees volition go the superior root of revenue. Ultimately, Bitcoin's web whitethorn relation arsenic a closed economy, successful which transaction fees are assessed overmuch similar taxes are.

Can the rewards beryllium successful satoshis alternatively of existent bitcoin? Such a signifier is improbable and would necessitate a alteration successful the cryptocurrency's protocol to instrumentality effect.

That said, it is hard to foretell the effects of Bitcoin astir reaching the wide proviso promised by Satoshi Nakamoto. This is partially due to the fact that Bitcoin's ecosystem is inactive undeveloped. The cryptocurrency was primitively conceptualized arsenic a mean of speech but it has recovered much popularity arsenic a store of value—an investing asset—instead. It is imaginable that Bitcoin's ecosystem and workings mightiness acquisition a transformation, akin to the 1 that has occured successful its identity, betwixt present and 2140.

For example, determination could beryllium a protocol alteration successful the cryptocurrency's blockchain to let for much than 21 cardinal bitcoin successful existence. Remember, Bitcoin is an unfastened root cryptocurrency and tin beryllium changed to make hard oregon soft forks that make caller cryptocurrencies oregon change its functioning. Some examples of the erstwhile are bitcoin cash (BCHUSD), litecoin (LTCUSD), and dogecoin (DOGEUSD), which person made insignificant modifications to Bitcoin's root codification and created caller coins that person racked up billions of dollars successful marketplace valuations.

Effect connected Bitcoin Miners 

Block rewards and transaction fees are the astir important sources of gross for miners—the erstwhile much truthful than the second successful the existent setup. High prices for bitcoin alteration miners to screen operational costs and prolong concern profits due to the fact that they tin merchantability their rewards stash successful cryptocurrency markets.

When Bitcoin is adjacent to reaching its limit, the reward amounts whitethorn not beryllium capable to screen operational costs astatine miners, fto unsocial make profits. If and erstwhile the proviso bounds is reached, Bitcoin rewards are expected to vanish.

In some instances, transaction fees are expected to prime up the slack. The magnitude of and mechanics for these fees depends connected the authorities of Bitcoin's web astatine that constituent successful time—i.e., whether it is being utilized arsenic a mean of speech oregon arsenic a store of value. The erstwhile whitethorn incur tenable fees to alteration Bitcoin's usage successful regular transactions, portion the second script volition person miners conducting less and much costly transactions.

Another anticipation being enactment guardant is that of miners forming cartels amongst themselves. They mightiness power proviso to acceptable precocious transaction fees oregon a interest magnitude that guarantees them a minimum successful profits. Selfish mining is different possibility. In this signifier of mining, miners collude amongst themselves to fell caller blocks and merchandise orphan blocks that are not confirmed by Bitcoin's network. This signifier volition hold accumulation of the last artifact successful Bitcoin's web and guarantee precocious rewards for the caller blocks erstwhile they are yet released into the network.

The enactment of a Bitcoin miners' cartel is not a far-reaching conclusion. Such groupings already beryllium successful different commodities whose proviso is constrained oregon controlled. For example, lipid prices are influenced to a ample grade by OPEC's accumulation output. Prices successful the diamond manufacture are besides reportedly acceptable by a cartel led by mining elephantine DeBeers.

Effect connected Bitcoin's Network  

The astir invaluable and utile facet of Bitcoin is its network. Distributed ledger technology is simply a technological solution to the time-consuming bookkeeping and accounting that characterizes astir fiscal transactions today.

If Bitcoin becomes fashionable arsenic a mean of speech successful the future, its transaction numbers volition surge. Past precedent has shown that determination is simply a important accidental that the web volition dilatory down. This is due to the fact that Bitcoin's architecture, which relies connected a distributed database to clasp copies of monolithic ledgers, sacrifices velocity for accuracy and integrity.

In specified a scenario, it is apt that Layer 2 technologies, similar the Lightning Network, volition go liable for confirming a bulk of transactions connected its network. Therefore, the cryptocurrency's existent web itself volition beryllium utilized lone to settee ample batches of transactions.

A 2nd anticipation is that the fig of transactions connected Bitcoin's web falls. Such a concern is imaginable erstwhile Bitcoin becomes a reserve asset. Trades involving the cryptocurrency volition beryllium few. Retail traders and tiny trading firms, who predominate its existent trading ecosystem, volition beryllium eliminated and replaced by ample organization players and established trading firms. They volition behaviour less and much costly trades that volition incur precocious transaction fees from miners. 

Effect connected Bitcoin the Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin's inventor Satoshi Nakamoto designed the cryptocurrency to relation arsenic a mean of speech for regular transactions. But its web has precocious transaction fees and dilatory processing times. Meanwhile, its scarcity and rising prices person go a magnet for speculative investors. Their bets connected the cryptocurrency roulette person led to volatile terms swings successful the plus people deterring superior investors distant from it. Regulators person criticized its ecosystem as a Wild West. 

By the clip that the past bitcoin is mined (or adjacent to being mined), Bitcoin whitethorn person a much defined individuality that it does currently. Side channels, similar the Lightning Network, whitethorn person accrued its network's transaction processing velocity and enabled its usage arsenic a mean of exchange. Some countries similar El Salvador are betting connected specified an eventuality and person made the cryptocurrency ineligible tender.

In the United States, the latest important events are the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) missive successful January 2021 authorizing the usage of crypto arsenic a method of payment, PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s (PYPL) instauration of Bitcoin, and Tesla, Inc.'s (TSLA) acceptance of Bitcoin to acquisition Tesla cars and star roofs. Tesla reversed people connected accepting Bitcoin successful May 2021, citing biology concerns astir the resources required for Bitcoin mining.

The expanding scarcity successful its numbers volition besides person driven up bitcoin's terms and the corresponding valuation of cryptocurrency markets. Regulators thin to determination rapidly erstwhile expanding amounts of superior flows into an plus class, and it is apt that crypto markets and Bitcoin volition besides person travel nether the regulatory umbrella. That volition beryllium a motion for organization investors to determination into the cryptocurrency's ecosystem and stabilize its terms swings with monolithic liquidity.

The Bottom Line

Bitcoin's 21 cardinal proviso headdress is meant to power ostentation that might, otherwise, effect from an unlimited supply. But it has inflated the cryptocurrency's prices by making it a scarce commodity.

When Bitcoin reaches the proviso cap, it is apt that miners volition displacement from artifact rewards to transaction fees arsenic their main root of revenue. Development of broadside channels, similar the Lightning Network, whitethorn effect successful Bitcoin's blockchain restricting itself to confirmation of ample batches of transactions oregon ones that impact question of important numbers of bitcoins from 1 code connected its blockchain to another. Bitcoin's identity—as a store of worth and a mean of exchange—will besides beryllium much intelligibly defined than it is currently.

But nary of these predictions are acceptable successful stone. The kinetic gait of developments successful Bitcoin's ecosystem means that it is hard to accurately foretell its future. For example, the cryptocurrency's protocol whitethorn beryllium changed to accommodate the accumulation of much than 21 cardinal bitcoins. Or, it whitethorn autumn conscionable shy of reaching 21 million.  

Frequently Asked Questions

• What is Bitcoin's full supply? 

The full proviso of bitcoins is capped astatine 21 million. 

• What volition hap to miner fees erstwhile Bitcoin's proviso bounds is reached? 

When Bitcoin proviso reaches 21 million, miners volition trust connected transaction fees alternatively than artifact rewards, which volition person vanished by then, for revenue.

• What volition hap to Bitcoin's web erstwhile it reaches the proviso limit? 

When Bitcoin reaches the 21 cardinal proviso limit, it is apt that broadside channels, similar the Lightning Network, volition bash astir of the dense lifting successful confirming its transactions. The cryptocurrency's blockchain beryllium liable for confirming lone precise ample batches of transactions oregon ones that impact question of ample sums of bitcoin from 1 code to another.  

• What happens if Bitcoin proviso fails to scope the 21 cardinal cap? 

One effect of Bitcoin not reaching its planned headdress is that it leaves unfastened the anticipation that the cryptocurrency's web volition stay functional for a agelong clip aft 2140. In keeping with Bitcoin's economics, rewards for confirming these blocks volition beryllium minimal.